The Clock is Ticking: A Progress Report on America’s Preparedness

The Clock is Ticking: A Progress Report on America’s Preparedness
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Executive Summary

“Unless the world community acts decisively and with great urgency,
it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a
terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013.”
—World at Risk

This was the somber conclusion of the bipartisan, congressionally mandated Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism in its report, World at Risk, released in December 2008. On December 2, 2008, the Director of National Intelligence publicly agreed with this assessment. Today, 323 days since the release of that report, the clock continues ticking and we are now closer to a possible attack. The U.S. government has taken some of the decisive and urgent actions needed, but these actions have not kept pace with the increasing capabilities and agility of those who would do harm to the United States and the world community.

The threat of bioterrorism is real. In December 2008, the Commission concluded that terrorists are more likely to be able to obtain and use a biological weapon than a nuclear weapon. This finding is not singular: In recent years, the United States has received strategic warnings of biological weapons use from dozens of government reports and expert panels.

The consequences of ignoring these warnings could be dire. For example, one recent study from the intelligence community projected that a one- to two-kilogram release of anthrax spores from a crop duster plane could kill more Americans than died in World War II. Clean-up and other economic costs could exceed $1.8 trillion.

Yet the nation’s level of preparedness for dealing with the threat of bioterrorism remains far lower than that of the nuclear threat. Central to U.S. biosecurity strategy should be the recognition that biological weapons are distinct from nuclear weapons and require a unique approach. Unlike nuclear weapons, which require highly advanced technology, massive infrastructure, and rare materials that can be closely monitored and secured, biological weapons materials occur naturally, require no significant infrastructure to produce, and can be found in nearly every part of the world.

As technology advances, the ability to prevent biological attacks diminishes. Therefore, as noted in the Commission’s report, in order to deter attacks, the United States needs to demonstrate through preparedness and public exercises that the nation is capable of blunting the impact and thwarting the terrorist’s objectives. The United States must strengthen resilience by developing the capability to produce vaccines and therapeutics rapidly and inexpensively.

The near-term biodefense goal of the United States should be to limit the consequences of a bioweapons attack. The long-term goal should be to improve post-attack capabilities for rapid recognition, response, and recovery to a level that bioterrorism would no longer be considered a weapon of mass destruction. However, this goal cannot be achieved without the proper investment today.

At the same time, the nuclear threat continues to loom large. Too many nuclear materials remain unaccounted for. The nuclear weapons ambitions of North Korea and Iran continue to advance with North Korea’s second nuclear test in May and the revelation of a hidden uranium enrichment facility in Iran, presenting increasingly immediate and urgent threats to the nonproliferation regime.
Pakistan remains the geographic crossroads for terrorism and weapons of mass destruction. Increasingly bold attacks on well guarded military, police, and UN targets indicate that the Taliban, al Qaeda, and other militant groups within Pakistan are a growing threat. The current trends, if left unchecked, will increase the odds that al Qaeda will successfully develop and use a biological weapon or a nuclear device against the United States or its allies.

Awareness of the nuclear threat was reaffirmed by the UN Security Council in September. UN Resolution 1887 expressed grave concern about the threat of nuclear proliferation to international peace and security and the need for international efforts to prevent it. But action will need to come out of the series of meetings coming up in the next year. As President Obama recognized in his speech before the UN Security Council, “The next 12 months will be absolutely critical in determining whether this resolution and our overall efforts to stop the spread and use of nuclear weapons are successful.” The urgency cannot be overstated. Failure to shore up the nonproliferation regime could very well lead to a cascade of nuclear weapons proliferation that significantly alters the world as we know it.

Actions to address these threats can be divided into four areas: biological weapons proliferation and terrorism, nuclear weapons proliferation and terrorism, government organization and culture, and the role of the citizen. The realities of the biological weapons threat require a primary focus on rapid recognition, response, and recovery following an attack. The realities of the nuclear threat require a primary focus on prevention. At the same time, government reform is needed to eliminate bureaucratic redundancies and inefficient oversight so that the nation’s intelligence and homeland security capabilities can be maximally effective. Finally, proper preparation will require the engagement of the American citizen through promotion of a culture of awareness and innovative cooperation. A well-informed, organized, and mobilized citizenry is one of the greatest resources of the United States and the foundation for national resilience in the event of a natural disaster or WMD attack.

INSUFFICIENT PROGRESS

Progress has been made, but the clock is ticking. As international leaders prepare to meet to discuss the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2010, the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention in 2011, and several other efforts along the way, the U.S. government must lead the world in acting more quickly to prevent WMD proliferation and terrorism. The current trajectory of risk does not favor the United States, but the nation has the opportunity to change that trajectory with effective action. It is the purpose of this interim report and a full report card in January 2010 to alert the public and its representatives as to what the American government can and is doing to accomplish just that.

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In January 2010, the Commission will be releasing a report card grading the Administration and Congress on their progress in implementing the recommendations of the Commission. This interim report highlights the areas that we are assessing and identifies both the successes and items that are in most urgent need of attention. Those areas are (1) Biological Weapons Proliferation and Terrorism; (2) Nuclear Weapons Proliferation and Terrorism; (3) Government Organization and Culture; and (4) The Role of the Citizen. Successes, needed improvements, and concerns for each of the four substantive areas are detailed in the sections below.

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